Name: Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

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9 markets tracked

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Poly	75%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?	Poly	13%
Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Poly	7%
Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?	Poly	4%
Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair confirmation and rates?	Poly	3%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, April 8, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (267 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.

This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will res"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $107.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $49.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.17)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $11.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $24.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $22.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair confirmation and rates?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $15.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

266d 10h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

12¢

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Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

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Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

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Events (1)

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Markets (9)

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair confirmation and rates?

Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair confirmation and rates?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?

Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?

Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair confirmation and rates?

Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair confirmation and rates?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Next Market Closes

Share

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