This market, titled "Netanyahu out by...?" on Polymarket, asks whether Benjamin Netanyahu will leave the post of Prime Minister of Israel within a set window. The contract resolves to "Yes" if Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister, or otherwise steps down or is removed from the position, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. The rules also state that an announcement of resignation or removal before the resolution date is enough to resolve the market to "Yes", even if he has not yet actually left office [1]. This means the trigger is the announcement itself, not only the date a departure takes effect. The rules name the primary resolution source as official information from the government of the State of Israel, with a consensus of credible reporting also used [1]. Readers should therefore treat official government statements as the main reference point, with mainstream reporting as a secondary check. The event page groups three related contracts that share the same question but use different deadlines: end of 2026, March 31, 2027, and June 30, 2027 [1]. Each contract has its own end date and rules. The end-of-2026 contract has a listed end time of January 1, 2027, 4:59 UTC, which corresponds to the December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rules [1]. The later contracts run further into 2027. Because the three contracts ask about overlapping windows, their prices can be compared to see how the market values different deadlines, but they are separate contracts and are not interchangeable. The provider reported the event as active at the time of the saved snapshot [1]. A snapshot records what the provider showed at one observed time. It is not a live feed, an executable quote, or a verified probability of Netanyahu leaving office. The sample of contracts in the record covers all saved markets for this event, but it does not establish that every possible outcome is listed.

Historical Context

Background from the supplied Wikipedia material describes Benjamin Netanyahu as an Israeli politician and diplomat who has served as prime minister of Israel since 2022 [2]. The same source states that he previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, and that he is Israel's longest-serving prime minister [2]. The Wikipedia excerpt was retrieved on the snapshot date, so it describes the source as written at retrieval. It does not, by itself, confirm the current state of affairs on any date after that retrieval.

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