Name: How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31? | PredictPedia

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7 markets tracked

Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?	Poly	98%
Will 5–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?	Poly	1%
Will 14–16 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?	Poly	1%
Will 11–13 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?	Poly	0%
Will 20 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?	Poly	0%
Will 17–19 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?	Poly	0%
Will 8–10 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Only military actions by Iranian forc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $67.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.02)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $26.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 5–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 8–10 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will 11–13 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will 14–16 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will 17–19 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will 20 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $15.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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14¢

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How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?

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Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

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Events (1)

How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?

Markets (7)

Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 5–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 5–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 14–16 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 14–16 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 11–13 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 11–13 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 20 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 20 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

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Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How many ships will Iran successfully target by March 31?

Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will fewer than 5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 5–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 5–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 14–16 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 14–16 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 11–13 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 11–13 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 20 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

Will 20 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31?

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Discussion

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