Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

Name: Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.11K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

Vol

$13.11K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $13.11K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.11K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 31?	Poly	3%
Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$13.11K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In early October 2026, posts circulating on social media claimed that Iranian officials would soon release audio of voicemails allegedly left for them by U.S. President Donald Trump, including messages seeking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As of this market’s creation, no Iranian official has publicly announced any such release. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of Iran publicly releases any audio recording of Donald Trump that was not publicly available as of this ma

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** In early October 2026, posts circulating on social media claimed that Iranian officials would soon release audio of voicemails allegedly left for them by U.S. President Donald Trump, including messages seeking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As of this market’s creation, no Iranian official has publicly announced any such release.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of Iran publicly releases any audio recording of Donald Trump that was not publicly available as of this ma

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $24.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.54)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $8.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Iran release a Trump voicemail about the Strait of Hormuz by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics