Resolution Criteria
In early October 2026, posts circulating on social media claimed that Iranian officials would soon release audio of voicemails allegedly left for them by U.S. President Donald Trump, including messages seeking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As of this market’s creation, no Iranian official has publicly announced any such release.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of Iran publicly releases any audio recording of Donald Trump that was not publicly available as of this market’s creation in which he expresses a wish for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened or reopened, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A release by the Government of Iran includes publication by any Iranian government official, ministry, or body (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), by Iranian state or state-affiliated media (e.g., IRIB, IRNA, Press TV, Tasnim, Fars), or through the official social media accounts of any of these. Audio released by any other party, including hacker groups, will qualify only if the Government of Iran also publicly releases or republishes it within this market’s timeframe.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying recording may be a voicemail, a voice message sent through a messaging application, or a recording of a live conversation, such as a phone call or meeting.
To qualify, the released audio must include what is presented as Donald Trump’s own voice expressing a desire, request, demand, or plea for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened or reopened (e.g., to commercial shipping). Audio in which Trump only mentions the Strait of Hormuz without expressing such a wish will not qualify. Written transcripts, descriptions, or characterizations of a recording without release of the audio itself will not qualify, nor will announcements of an intent to release.
The recording must not have been publicly available as of this market’s creation. Audio that was publicly available as of this market’s creation will not qualify, even if it is re-released; however, previously unreleased portions of an otherwise public recording may qualify.
The released audio will qualify as long as it is presented by the Government of Iran as a genuine recording of Donald Trump, regardless of whether its authenticity is confirmed, disputed, or denied.
The resolution source will be official information from the Government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
