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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

Name: AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
End: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$404.34K

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Markets

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AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner

Vol

$404.34K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $404.34K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $404.34K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	74%
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	21%
Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	1%
Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	1%
Will Kaitlin Purrington be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	1%
Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	0%
Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	0%
Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	0%
Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	0%
Will Muchelle Ugenti-Rita be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	0%
Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	0%
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	0%
Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	0%
Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$404.34K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. An

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** AZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 4, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

An

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announ"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $404.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $67.7K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.97)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $48.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.3% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $7.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $222.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Derrick Gallego be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $3.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Muchelle Ugenti-Rita be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $4.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Paul Reevs be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Mark Brnovich be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $61.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will John Trobough be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $7.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Kaitlin Purrington be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $9.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Brandon Sowers be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 4, 2026): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics