Name: Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner
End: 2026-10-17T00:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $32.87K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $32.87K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	33%
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	30%
Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	16%
Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	16%
Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	4%
Will Rebecca Bligh win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	2%
Will Colleen Hardwick win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	2%
Will Sean Orr win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	1%
Will Tim Louis win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	0%
Will Amanda Burrows win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	0%
Will Kirk LaPointe win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	0%
Will Fred Harding win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

33%

Top Probability

$32.87K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 Vancouver mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Vancouver as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 17, 2026 (182 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The 2026 Vancouver mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Vancouver as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 Vancouver mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Vancouver as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be c"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $138.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.24)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Rebecca Bligh win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Colleen Hardwick win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Amanda Burrows win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Kirk LaPointe win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Sean Orr win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Tim Louis win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Fred Harding win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 17, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld