Closer Senate Race: Florida or South Carolina?
PM $704.53 · K 352.47 contracts
2
3
Closer Senate Race: Florida or South Carolina?
PM $704.53 · K 352.47 contracts
2
3
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $704.53 · K 352.47 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 3, 2026 If X has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for Florida US Senate, special election, and South Carolina US Senate as of Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share, expressed as percentage, between first and second place finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator. If official results aren't available by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. If multiple elections have identical margins and relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options. This market will close and expire early if all election results are certified.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The two platforms ask related questions with different rules. Kalshi's contract resolves Yes if South Carolina or Florida, respectively, has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in scope: the November 3, 2026 general elections for Florida US Senate, special election, and South Carolina US Senate, as of Nov 10, 2026 [1]. Its margin is the absolute difference in vote share between first and second place, using total votes cast as the denominator [1]. If official results are unavailable by the deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95% of expected vote are used. Tied options split the payout [1].
Polymarket compares only the regularly scheduled Senate race in each state. It resolves on the unrounded margin, calculated from valid votes, and a tie resolves 50-50 [2]. For multi-round elections, the winning round is used. If a margin cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin is treated as 0% [2].
Reading the snapshot
The Kalshi markets were observed at 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z [1]. On Kalshi, the South Carolina contract has a Yes price of 0.64 and the Florida contract has a Yes price of 0.36 [1]. On Polymarket, Florida is priced at 0.405 and South Carolina at 0.595 [2]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Within each platform, the outcomes sum to one. The two platforms should not be averaged or ranked together, because their margin definitions, comparison sets, and deadlines differ. A gap between platforms is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity. The saved coverage includes all two Kalshi markets and the one Polymarket market, with no partial sample [1][2]. The sample is complete for these saved events, but that does not show that the providers list every possible outcome.
What remains uncertain
The Kalshi listing states that its provider end time was not supplied, while its market end date is 2026-11-10T15:00:00.000Z [1]. Polymarket lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [2]. These are listed close times, not announced result dates. The Kalshi event also states that it will close early if all election results are certified [1].
The supplied evidence contains no election results, so it cannot show which margin is smaller. It also does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not indicate how many traders hold either position.
References
- Kalshi: Closer Senate Race: Florida or South Carolina?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
- Polymarket: Closer Senate Race: Florida or South Carolina?. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks which of two 2026 United States Senate races will have the smaller margin of victory. The 2026 United States Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [3], and the 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for the same date [2]. Across the wider cycle, 33 of the 100 Senate seats are contested in regular elections, and the winners would serve six-year terms beginning January 3, 2027 [4]. The contract appears on two platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, under similar titles [1][2]. The wording differs in important ways. Polymarket's version resolves to Florida or South Carolina by comparing the unrounded margin of victory in each state's regularly scheduled Senate race, and it resolves 50-50 if the two margins are equal [2]. Under that version, the margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates [2]. Kalshi's version refers to whether a named option has the smallest margin among all elections in the November 3, 2026 general elections for the Florida US Senate special election and the South Carolina US Senate race as of November 10, 2026 [1]. Its margin is calculated as the absolute difference in vote share between the top two finishers, using total votes cast as the denominator [1]. Because Kalshi refers to a Florida special election while Polymarket refers to the regularly scheduled Florida race, a reader should check which race each platform's rules describe [1][2]. The resolution rules also differ. Kalshi says that if official results are not available by its deadline, preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95 percent of the expected vote are used, and tied options each resolve to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options [1]. Polymarket names a compilation of relevant state election authorities as its resolution source, allows a consensus of credible reporting, and says that if a relevant margin cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin is treated as 0 percent [2]. The March 31, 2027 date is a contract rule. It is not an announced date for any election event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness rather than the winner of either race. Each platform compares how far apart the top two finishers are in a specific Senate election, so a result can favor the contract whether the leading candidate in either state wins or loses [1][2]. Kalshi uses total votes cast as the denominator for its margin, while Polymarket uses the percentages of valid votes [1][2]. These definitional choices can change which race is measured as closer, so the exact wording of the platform's rules determines how a result is read. The Kalshi and Polymarket markets in this set are separate contracts, and their snapshot prices are not directly comparable as a single ranking of outcomes.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as the margin of victory for this contract?
On Polymarket, the margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates, calculated by dividing each candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast [2]. On Kalshi, the margin is the absolute difference in vote share between first and second place, using total votes cast as the denominator [1].
What happens if the two races have the same margin?
On Polymarket, the market resolves 50-50 if both states have the same margin of victory [2]. On Kalshi, if multiple elections have identical margins and the relevant options are listed, each tied option resolves to Yes at $1.00 divided by the number of tied options [1].
What happens if official results are not available by the deadline?
Kalshi uses preliminary results from Source Agencies with at least 95 percent of the expected vote if official results are not available by its deadline [1]. Polymarket says that if a relevant margin cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin will be considered 0 percent [2].
Which elections does each platform's version cover?
Kalshi's version refers to the November 3, 2026 general elections for the Florida US Senate special election and the South Carolina US Senate, measured as of November 10, 2026 [1]. Polymarket's version refers to the regularly scheduled US Senate race in Florida and the South Carolina Senate election [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Closest Senate Race?
PM $32.6KWhich Senate races will be within 5%?
PM $116.2KWhich Senate races will be within 1%?
PM $24.6K
Closest Senate race in 2026?
K 995.6K contracts
South Carolina Senate winner?
K 3.57M contracts
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
PM $856.8KMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
