Market snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Reported volume

K 7.9K contracts

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Vol

K 7.9K contracts

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Current odds

Snapshot from Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 4.98% or below at 83.5%.

Kalshi

4.98% or below83.5%
4.97% or below81%
4.96% or below60.5%
4.95% or below54.5%
4.94% or below45.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

Price ChartContract price history

20 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.99% by Oct 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.99% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	83.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.98% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	81.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.97% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	60.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.96% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	54.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.95% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	45.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.94% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	35.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.93% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	31.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.91% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	24.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.90% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	19.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.92% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	18.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.88% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	14.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.89% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	14.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.87% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	14.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.86% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	11.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.85% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	9.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.84% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	8.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.83% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	6.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.82% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	5.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.81% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	4.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.80% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	4.0%

Rules & Resolution

Saved matching review

Needs review: no direct pair assessment is available.

A saved event match does not establish identical settlement. Pair reviews appear with each price comparison.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

K 7.9K contracts

Reported volume · provider units

Saved contracts

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

About This Event

By Oct 30, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 7.9K contracts
Coverage: 20 of 20 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.99% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.99; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 479 contracts
Outcome Yes: 83.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 16.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.99% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.98% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.98; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 1.1K contracts
Outcome Yes: 81.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 19.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.98% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.97% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.97; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 582.42 contracts
Outcome Yes: 60.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 39.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.97% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.96% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.96; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 813 contracts
Outcome Yes: 54.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 45.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.96% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.95% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.95; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 614 contracts
Outcome Yes: 45.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 54.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.95% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.94% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.94; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 194 contracts
Outcome Yes: 35.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 64.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.94% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.93% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.93; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 349 contracts
Outcome Yes: 31.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 68.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.93% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.92% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.92; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 443 contracts
Outcome Yes: 18.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 81.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.92% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.91% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.91; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 202 contracts
Outcome Yes: 24.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 76.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.91% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.90% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.90; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 100 contracts
Outcome Yes: 19.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 80.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.90% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.89% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.89; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 542 contracts
Outcome Yes: 14.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 86.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.89% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.88% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.88; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 571 contracts
Outcome Yes: 14.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 85.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.88% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.87% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.87; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 128 contracts
Outcome Yes: 14.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 86.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.87% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.86% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.86; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 138 contracts
Outcome Yes: 11.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 88.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.86% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.85% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.85; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 525 contracts
Outcome Yes: 9.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 90.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.85% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.84% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.84; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 324 contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.84% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.83% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.83; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 200 contracts
Outcome Yes: 6.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 93.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.83% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.82% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.82; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 215 contracts
Outcome Yes: 5.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 94.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.82% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.81% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.81; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 245 contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.81% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Contract: Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.80% by Oct 30, 2026?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRDIRLW-26OCT30L-T4.80; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrdirlw-26oct30l
Observed: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Reported volume: 200 contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.80% on any business day between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 23, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered.
Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.

Expiration
If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2.
Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period.
If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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KALSHIFinancials

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Volume$7.92K

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Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.99% by Oct 30, 2026?

kalshi

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.99% by Oct 30, 2026?

Yes: 83.5¢
No: 16.5¢

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.98% by Oct 30, 2026?

kalshi

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.98% by Oct 30, 2026?

Yes: 81.0¢
No: 19.0¢

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.97% by Oct 30, 2026?

kalshi

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.97% by Oct 30, 2026?

Yes: 60.5¢
No: 39.5¢

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.96% by Oct 30, 2026?

kalshi

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.96% by Oct 30, 2026?

Yes: 54.5¢
No: 45.5¢

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.95% by Oct 30, 2026?

kalshi

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.95% by Oct 30, 2026?

Yes: 45.5¢
No: 54.5¢

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

KalshiEconomics

How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

K 14.8K contracts

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% by Oct 30, 2026?Yes 87.5%

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% by Oct 30, 2026?Yes 68%

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% by Oct 30, 2026?Yes 53.5%

+17 moreNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

PM $35.5K · K 10.0K contracts

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.95% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 41%Rules differK Yes 51.5%

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.90% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 19.3%Rules differK Yes 15%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

2 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

PolymarketKalshiEconomy

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

PM $26.6K · K 2.3K contracts

Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.25% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 33%Rules differK Yes 38.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

1 saved comparisonNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

KalshiEconomics

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.76% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.75% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.5%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.89% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.4%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?

Kalshi: Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.69% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related contracts

PM Yes 2.3%Rules differK Yes 0.5%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

6 saved comparisonsNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC

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Nov 01, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC

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How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

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