US electricity price in October
K 1.7K contracts
1
7
US electricity price in October
K 1.7K contracts
1
7
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 19.6¢ at 55%.
Kalshi
- Above 19.6¢55%
- Above 20.0¢50%
- Above 19.8¢50%
- Above 19.2¢50%
- Above 19.0¢50%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
7
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
October 2026 If the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for October 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the October 2026 observation of Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Average [APU000072610], stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted. The value will be measured to the last decimal place published by the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made after Last Trading Date will not count. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T18:00:05.955Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks whether the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for October 2026 will be above a stated threshold. Each market in the saved event uses a different threshold, from 18.8 cents to 20.0 cents. The resolution source is the first value FRED publishes for the October 2026 observation of series APU000072610, stated in U.S. dollars and not seasonally adjusted [1]. The source notes that the value is measured to the last decimal place published and that revisions made after the Last Trading Date will not count [1].
The listed close times are 2026-11-17T15:00:00Z for all seven markets [1]. The source also says the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1]. The provider status line reads "Listed end time: not supplied," which differs from the endDate field, so readers should treat the close time as a listed value rather than a confirmed resolution date.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-24T18:00:05.955Z and retrieved at 2026-10-24T18:50:33.466Z [1]. They describe that moment only and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
In this snapshot, the Yes price falls as the threshold rises. The 18.8 cent market shows Yes at 0.985, the 19.4 cent market at 0.465, and the 20.0 cent market at 0.045 [1]. The seven markets are all from one Kalshi event, and the saved sample includes all seven markets with no partial sample flag [1]. Because the markets are thresholds on the same underlying value, they should not be read as independent outcomes, and their prices should not be combined or averaged into a single figure.
The snapshot does not include volume, trader counts, or other platforms, so no comparison across providers is possible from this evidence.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels, and it does not show recent data releases or any other news. The sample covers only the saved provider event; the source states that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The evidence also does not confirm the actual FRED value or whether the market has closed early. Readers should check the current contract status and the official FRED release before relying on any figure.
References
- Kalshi: US electricity price in October. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T18:00:05.955Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This Kalshi event concerns the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for October 2026. Each contract asks whether that figure will be above a stated threshold. The event's rules say the market resolves to Yes if the average price is above the threshold X, and the underlying value is the first figure the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's FRED database publishes for the October 2026 observation of the series APU000072610, stated in U.S. dollars and not seasonally adjusted [1]. The rules say the value is measured to the last decimal place the source agency publishes, that revisions made after the Last Trading Date do not count, and that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The saved event lists seven thresholds, from 18.8 cents to 20.0 cents per kilowatt-hour, in steps of roughly 0.2 cents. Each threshold has its own Yes and No contract. The saved prices at the observation time show the Yes side falling as the threshold rises, from about 0.985 at 18.8 cents to about 0.045 at 20.0 cents [1]. These are snapshot prices from a single observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a higher or lower price on one threshold does not by itself indicate a mispricing relative to another. General background on electricity pricing is useful for understanding what can move a retail rate. Electricity prices can vary by country or locality, and they depend on factors such as the price of power generation, government taxes or subsidies, CO2 taxes, local weather, transmission and distribution infrastructure, and regulation. Prices can also differ across residential, commercial, and industrial connections [2]. Analysts also separate electricity costs into wholesale costs, retail costs paid by consumers, and external costs imposed on society [3]. The FRED series used by this contract is a national city-average retail measure, so it reflects the consumer side rather than wholesale or external costs [1][3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single monthly national figure: the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for October 2026, as first published by FRED [1]. Because each threshold is a separate yes or no question, the set of contracts shows how the market values different ranges for that one reported number [1]. The figure is a consumer price measure, so it is affected by the factors that shape retail tariffs, such as generation costs, taxes, subsidies, and infrastructure, which the general background describes [2][3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What value decides whether a contract resolves Yes?
The underlying is the first value FRED publishes for the October 2026 observation of APU000072610, stated in U.S. dollars and not seasonally adjusted, and measured to the last decimal place the source agency publishes [1].
Do later revisions to the figure change the outcome?
No. The rules state that revisions to the underlying made after the Last Trading Date will not count [1].
Why might the market close before the listed end date?
The rules state that the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The listed end date in the provider data is November 17, 2026 at 15:00 UTC, but that date appears in the contract data and is not a stated release date [1].
Does a higher threshold always have a lower Yes price?
In the saved snapshot, Yes prices decline as the threshold rises across the seven listed contracts [1]. That pattern reflects the observed prices at one point in time, and the event does not describe how those prices will move.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
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