Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The event is titled "US used cars and trucks CPI for October" [1]. Its rules state that if the US used cars and trucks CPI for October 2026 is above X, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules name FRED series CUSR0000SETA02, described as "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Used Cars and Trucks in U.S. City Average, which is published monthly and is seasonally adjusted" [1]. The 11 saved markets differ only in their threshold, which runs from 178 to 188 [1]. The rules also state that "This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1], so any listed end date should be read with that condition in mind.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T04:38:36.837Z [1]. These are point-in-time records, not live or executable quotes. The saved Yes prices are: above 178 at 0.94, above 179 at 0.495, above 180 at 0.455, above 181 at 0.20, above 182 at 0.11, above 183 at 0.245, above 184 at 0.415, above 185 at 0.425, above 186 at 0.48, above 187 at 0.49, and above 188 at 0.50 [1].

The prices do not fall steadily as the threshold rises. For example, the Yes price for above 183 (0.245) is lower than for above 184 (0.415), and the price for above 188 (0.50) is higher than for above 182 (0.11). A reader should not treat these differences as an arbitrage opportunity or as a clean probability distribution without checking current provider data. The evidence does not include volume, so it cannot show liquidity or the number of participants.

On coverage, all 11 saved markets for this single event are included, and the partial-sample flag is false [1]. The sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. No other platform's markets are included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.

What remains uncertain

The source excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied," while the market records show an end date of 2026-11-17T15:00:00.000Z [1]. Because of the early-close condition, the actual closing time could differ from that date. The evidence does not say when the underlying data will be released, what drives the snapshot prices, or whether prices have changed since the observation time.

References

1. Kalshi: US used cars and trucks CPI for October. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z.