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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Name: May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
End: 2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$58.60

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Markets

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May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Vol

$58.60

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $58.60

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $58.60

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?	Poly	52%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026?	Poly	47%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?	Poly	46%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?	Poly	42%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?	Poly	39%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?	Poly	39%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

52%

Top Probability

$58.60

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" unde

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 10, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" unde

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $59
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 10, 2026): Vol $59
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in May 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience