Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

Name: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.24K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

Vol

$4.24K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.24K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.24K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	Poly	35%
Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	Poly	14%
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	Poly	14%
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

35%

Top Probability

$4.24K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized befor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

Data for a specific date must be finalized befor

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

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## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $24.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.18)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $934
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $670
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $895
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $289
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics