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Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?

Yes3%-0.1%

Vol$289.00

Outcomes2

3%

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MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?

Part of: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

NoNo Price

97¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$289.00

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Nov 1, 2026

in 20 days

Trade on Polymarket

Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?

Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?

No

97¢

|

Vol

$289.00

|

Outcomes

2

Yes3.4¢

No96.7¢

Price History

Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31, 2026?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

19 Days Left

November 01, 2026 • 3:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

November 01, 2026

3:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.