Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

What will be in the UK Budget?

Name: What will be in the UK Budget?
End: 2026-10-29T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$10.07K

Events

Markets

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What will be in the UK Budget?

Vol

$10.07K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $10.07K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $10.07K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?	Poly	42%
Will the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?	Poly	30%
Will the UK Budget include a land value tax?	Poly	16%
Will the UK Budget include a wealth tax?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

42%

Top Probability

$10.07K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows: - Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets. - Land value tax: the introduction of a percen

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will be in the UK Budget?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 29, 2026 (18 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows:

- Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets.
- Land value tax: the introduction of a percen

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.47)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the UK Budget include a wealth tax?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $822
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the UK Budget include a land value tax?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $975
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the UK Budget include an increase to fuel duty?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 29, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy