Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will Utah's House Price Index exceed 722.63 in Q4 2026?

Total Volume

$836.38

Events

Markets

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Will Utah's House Price Index exceed 722.63 in Q4 2026?

Vol

$836.38

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $836.38

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $836.38

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Utah’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 722.63?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Utah’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 722.63?	Kalshi	59%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$836.38

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Q4 2026 If FHFA reports Utah’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 is above 722.63, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the Utah (UT) Q4 2026 index_sa value in FHFA’s Purchase-Only State HPI dataset from the first FHFA quarterly release containing Q4 2026 data. The strike of 722.63 is fixed and will not change if FHFA subsequently revises its Q4 2025 index value. Subsequent revisions to the first-published Q4 2026 value will not affect resolution.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Utah's House Price Index exceed 722.63 in Q4 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Q4 2026

If FHFA reports Utah’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 is above 

722.63, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the Utah (UT) Q4 2026 index_sa value in FHFA’s Purchase-Only State HPI dataset from the first FHFA quarterly release containing Q4 2026 data.

The strike of 722.63 is fixed and will not change if FHFA subsequently revises its Q4 2025 index value. Subsequent revisions to the first-published Q4 2026 value will not affect resolution.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If FHFA reports Utah’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 is above 

722.63, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use the Utah (UT) Q4 2026 index_sa value in FHFA’s Purchase-Only State HPI dataset from the first FHFA quarterly release contain"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $836
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Utah’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index for Q4 2026 be above 722.63?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 7, 2027): Vol $836
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics