Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

Total Volume

$66.00

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How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

Vol

$66.00

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $66.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $66.00

100%

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10 markets tracked

Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	97%
Will at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	89%
Will at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	78%
Will at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	63%
Will at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	46%
Will at least 14 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will at least 15 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	18%
Will at least 16 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will at least 17 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will at least 18 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

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97%

Top Probability

$66.00

Volume

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About This Event

2026 elections If at least X members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election, by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot, but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members agains

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026 elections

If at least X members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election, by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot, but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elections, runoffs, retention elections, or recalls. Members who retire, withdraw before primaries, die, resign, or are disqualified do not count as losses. If redistricting forces two group members agains

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elec"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $66
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will at least 18 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will at least 17 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will at least 16 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $6
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will at least 15 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will at least 14 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $17
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $14
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $9
  DATA: [Yes: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

Volume$66.00

Markets10

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KALSHI

Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

If at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general elec

KALSHI

Will at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

If at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general ele

KALSHI

Will at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

If at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general ele

KALSHI

Will at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.0¢No 37.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

If at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general ele

KALSHI

Will at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.0¢No 54.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

If at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Members count as losing re-election if they actively seek re-election (by filing candidacy or appearing on ballot) but fail to win. This includes losses in primaries, general ele

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How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

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Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

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Events (1)

How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

Markets (10)

Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

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Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

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How many House Democrats will lose reelection in 2026?

Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 9 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 10 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 11 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 12 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

Will at least 13 members of the House Democrats lose re-election in 2026?

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