This contract is a Polymarket event titled Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner. It asks which candidate will win the 2027 gubernatorial election in Baja California Sur, a Mexican state. The provider states that gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled for June 6, 2027 [1]. Wikipedia's summary of the 2027 Mexican local elections gives the same date, notes that it is concurrent with the 2027 federal elections, and says voters will elect 17 governors, members of 31 local congresses, and numerous municipal authorities [2]. The scheduled date is therefore a calendar fact from these sources, not a result. The contract rules are specific about who qualifies. The provider says that "Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify." [1] A candidate therefore needs to be a candidate in the 2027 election itself, not simply someone holding the office in the interim. The event also lists a listed end time of June 7, 2027 at 03:59 UTC [1]. The listed end time is a contract setting and should not be read as the date results will be announced. Resolution is tied to reporting and official results. The provider says the market "will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections," based on "a consensus of credible reporting" and, where there is ambiguity, "solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico" [1]. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Each candidate has a separate yes or no contract within the same event. In the saved snapshot, these contracts show prices for yes and no outcomes [1]. Those prices reflect the moment the provider data was observed. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and a price difference between two candidates does not by itself describe why those prices differ.

Historical Context

The supplied sources give only general background on Mexican politics. Wikipedia describes the Party of the Democratic Revolution as a state-level social democratic party in Mexico. It says the party originated from the Democratic Current, a faction formed in 1986 from the Institutional Revolutionary Party, and was formed after the contested 1988 general election, which its predecessor believed was rigged by the PRI [3]. The sources do not connect this history to the Baja California Sur race or to any candidate in this contract.

Frequently Asked Questions