GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner

Name: Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner
End: 2027-06-06T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.86K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner

Vol

$14.86K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.86K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.86K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	31%
Will Manuel Cota Cárdenas win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	25%
Will Christian Agúndez Gómez win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	14%
Will Milena Quiroga Romero win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	11%
Will José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	7%
Will Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	6%
Will Edith Aguilar Villavicencio win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	5%
Will Antonio Manríquez win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	5%
Will Roxana Higuera win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	4%
Will José Saúl González Núñez win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	4%
Will Diana Von Borstel Luna win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	3%
Will Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	2%
Will Susana Zataraín García win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Ricardo Barroso Agramont win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Fabricio del Castillo win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$14.86K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible report

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Baja California Sur Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 6, 2027 (275 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible report

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California Sur on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not kn"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $189.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Milena Quiroga Romero win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $583
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Manuel Cota Cárdenas win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Christian Agúndez Gómez win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will José Saúl González Núñez win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $206
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $156
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Diana Von Borstel Luna win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $176
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $187
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Susana Zataraín García win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $157
  DATA: [Yes: 1.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $176
  DATA: [Yes: 6.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.3% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Edith Aguilar Villavicencio win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $255
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Ricardo Barroso Agramont win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $196
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.4% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $176
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Roxana Higuera win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $176
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Antonio Manríquez win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $176
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Fabricio del Castillo win the 2027 Baja California Sur Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $176
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics