GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner

Name: California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$30.58K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner

Vol

$30.58K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $30.58K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $30.58K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	95%
Will Rakesh Christian win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Josh Fryday win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will David Fennell win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Janelle Kellman win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Oliver Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Ebie Lynch win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Jeyson Lopez win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Michael Tubbs win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Sean Collinson win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will David Collenberg win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$30.58K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this mar"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $30.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $101.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.30)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Rakesh Christian win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will David Collenberg win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Sean Collinson win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will David Fennell win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Josh Fryday win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Janelle Kellman win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jeyson Lopez win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Ebie Lynch win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $12.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Oliver Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $3.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Michael Tubbs win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics