California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner
PM $31.8K
1
11
California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner
PM $31.8K
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Fiona Ma at 96.4%.
Polymarket
- Fiona Ma96.4%
- Janelle Kellman1.3%
- Oliver Ma1.3%
- Josh Fryday0.9%
- Ebie Lynch0.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $31.8K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which candidate will win the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election, which the source says is "currently scheduled for November 3, 2026" [1]. Each candidate has a separate Yes/No market. The Yes price for each candidate is the price of a contract that pays out if that candidate wins under the rules.
Resolution depends on calls from three outlets. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they do not all call it for the same candidate, it resolves on official certification. If results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, it resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, which is the platform's listed close and not a statement of when the race will be called [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:22:21.719Z [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Fiona Ma has the highest Yes price in the sample at 0.9555. The other ten candidates range from 0.0015 (David Collenberg) to 0.023 (Janelle Kellman). Because the markets are ranked by Yes price in this sample, the ordering reflects the snapshot only. The Yes prices do not sum to exactly 1.00, which is typical of separately quoted contracts and is another reason not to treat them as calibrated probabilities.
Each market has the same listed end time and the same resolution rules, so differences in price here cannot be attributed to differences in close timing or wording. The snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this single provider event, and no markets are omitted [1]. The source does not establish that these candidates are every possible real-world outcome. The resolution text mentions "Other," but the saved markets do not include a separate price for it, so the snapshot does not show what "Other" is trading at.
The data reflects one moment in time. Prices may have changed after the observation, and the snapshot cannot show whether any price is stable. Volume is not included in this interpretation and would not measure liquidity or the number of traders. The source also does not describe any events between the observation and the scheduled election date. Readers should check the current source before drawing conclusions about any candidate.
References
- Polymarket: California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia's contract on the California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner is a Polymarket event tied to the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election, which the contract rules say is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. The event groups separate yes or no contracts, each asking whether one named candidate will win. The saved event contains eleven such markets, with names including Fiona Ma, Janelle Kellman, Rakesh Christian, Josh Fryday, Oliver Ma, Ebie Lynch, David Fennell, Jeyson Lopez, Sean Collinson, Michael Tubbs and David Collenberg [1]. The contract rules say the market resolves according to the candidate who wins the election, but only once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If those three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification [1]. The rules also say that if results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time for the contracts is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That date is the listed contract closing time from the provider's rules, not a confirmed date on which any result has been announced. For background on the wider election, Wikipedia states that the 2026 California general election will take place on November 3, 2026, and that the statewide direct primary was held on June 2 [2]. That article is background reference material and does not confirm any current election result or status.
Historical Context
Wikipedia records that the statewide direct primary for the 2026 California elections was held on June 2, and that the general election is set for November 3, 2026 [2]. The provider rules describe the contract's resolution process and do not add further historical detail about the office.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single question for each named candidate: whether that candidate will be the winner of the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election under the resolution rules [1]. Because resolution depends on a call by three named news organizations or on official certification, the contract is tied to a defined process rather than to any informal announcement [1]. The prices shown for each candidate are snapshots of the market at the time of observation. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved sample includes all eleven markets from this event, but the sample warning notes that this does not establish that every possible real-world candidate is listed [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the contract scheduled to close?
The listed end time for the markets is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The underlying election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. The listed end time is a closing time for the contract, and it does not show that results have been called.
What determines how the market resolves?
The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they have not all called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on official certification [1].
What happens if the results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027?
The contract rules state that the market will resolve to "Other" if the election results are not confirmed by July 31, 2027 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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