GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Baja California Governor Election Winner

Name: Baja California Governor Election Winner
End: 2027-06-06T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$25.71K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Baja California Governor Election Winner

Vol

$25.71K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $25.71K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.71K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

21 markets tracked

Will Julieta Ramírez Padilla win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Julieta Ramírez Padilla win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	60%
Will Ismael Burgueño Ruiz win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	18%
Will Evangelina Moreno Guerra win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	12%
Will Montserrat Caballero Ramírez win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	11%
Will Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	4%
Will Juan Carlos Hank win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	4%
Will Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	2%
Will Gina Cruz Blackledge win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	2%
Will Víctor Galicia win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	2%
Will Gustavo Macalpin win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Héctor Osuna Jaime win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	1%
Will Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Armando Ayala Robles win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Fernando Castro Trenti win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Ana Daniela García Salgado win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Gustavo de Hoyos Walther win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Karla Ruiz Macfarland win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Daylín García Ruvalcaba win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	0%
Will Jorge Ramos Hernández win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

60%

Top Probability

$25.71K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Baja California Governor Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 6, 2027 (275 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Baja California on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known defi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $328.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Julieta Ramírez Padilla win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $9.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 60.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Ismael Burgueño Ruiz win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Armando Ayala Robles win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $403
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Fernando Castro Trenti win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $484
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Evangelina Moreno Guerra win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $641
  DATA: [Yes: 11.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $408
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $463
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Jorge Ramos Hernández win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $389
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $535
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Montserrat Caballero Ramírez win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $566
  DATA: [Yes: 11.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Gustavo Macalpin win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $483
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Gina Cruz Blackledge win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $408
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Héctor Osuna Jaime win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $406
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $410
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $702
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Ana Daniela García Salgado win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $580
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Víctor Galicia win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $413
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Gustavo de Hoyos Walther win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $460
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Daylín García Ruvalcaba win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $422
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Karla Ruiz Macfarland win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $435
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Juan Carlos Hank win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 6, 2027): Vol $483
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics