Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
PM $80.3K
1
4
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
PM $80.3K
1
4
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is March 31, 2027 at 60.5%.
Polymarket
- March 31, 202760.5%
- December 3123.5%
- November 3010.5%
- October 313.6%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $80.3K
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks whether Russia will capture a specific building, the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka, by a stated date [1]. The market resolves "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at the listed coordinates between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET [1]. Only shading under "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain" or "Assessed Russian Advances" qualifies. Shading under "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas" or "Claimed Russian Territory" does not [1]. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle, and temporary map glitches are not considered [1]. A negotiated settlement that gives Russia actual control can qualify, but an announcement giving de jure control does not [1]. If ISW is unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used, and if both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1].
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T20:11:38.503Z [1]. They describe that earlier observation, not live trading. Four date-threshold contracts are included, and the saved coverage shows all markets for this event with no partial sample flagged [1]. The Yes prices were 0.075 for October 31, 2026, 0.175 for November 30, 2026, 0.335 for December 31, 2026, and 0.635 for March 31, 2027 [1]. The matching No prices were 0.925, 0.825, 0.665, and 0.365 [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The listed end times are in UTC: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z, 2026-12-01T04:59:00.000Z, 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, and 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. These match the 11:59 PM ET deadline in the rules [1]. Because each contract has a different deadline, they are separate questions and should not be compared as if they were one outcome.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the current state of the ISW map, any price history, trading volume, or how many traders hold each view. The saved excerpt does not report volume, and volume would not measure liquidity or trader count in any case. The sample warning states that the providers do not establish a complete list of possible real-world outcomes [1]. Whether the building's status has changed since the observation time cannot be determined from this evidence. Check the live ISW map and the current contract pages before relying on any figure.
References
- Polymarket: Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a contract that asks whether Russia will capture a specific building, the Royal Café Alex, in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by a stated date. The contract rules, as saved in the provider record [1], define the target by map coordinates rather than by news reports. The building is identified at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E, and the rules direct that the question be settled using the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map. The main test is whether the building's footprint is shaded on the ISW map under a qualifying layer by the resolution date. According to the rules, shading under "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain" or "Assessed Russian Advances" qualifies. Shading under "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas" or "Claimed Russian Territory" does not [1]. The shading must also persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle, and if ISW skips a day, until the next finalized update is published [1]. The rules also address what happens after a qualifying condition is met. Once it is met, a later loss of control does not count toward resolution [1]. Temporary glitches or errors in the map are excluded from consideration [1]. The rules name a fallback order. If the ISW map is unavailable, information from DeepStateMap may be used. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1]. A negotiated settlement can produce a Yes outcome if Russia comes into actual control of the territory, even without qualifying shading. However, an announcement of a settlement that gives Russia de jure control does not qualify, because actual control must be established [1]. The saved provider record lists the event as a group of date-specific markets with the same underlying question. The titles refer to deadlines of October 31, November 30, and December 31, 2026, and March 31, 2027, with the rules setting the cutoff at 11:59 PM ET on each named date [1]. These are deadlines written into the contract rules, not announced events, and the record does not describe any particular development expected on those dates.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a single, named building in Kostyantynivka is recorded as Russian-controlled or as an assessed Russian advance on a specified map, by a specified date [1]. Because the outcome depends on map layers and persistence rules rather than general reporting about the town, the wording of those layers determines what counts. The rules specifically exclude infiltration areas and claimed territory, so a building that falls within those categories alone would not resolve the contract as Yes [1]. Anyone reading the market should check the layer definitions and update rules in the source text rather than relying on a summary of the front line.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What map determines whether this contract resolves Yes?
The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map. DeepStateMap is the fallback if ISW is rendered unavailable, and a consensus of credible reporting may be used if both are permanently unavailable [1].
Would shading under the infiltration layer count?
No. The rules state that shading under "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas" will not qualify [1].
Does a later Russian withdrawal reverse a Yes outcome?
The rules state that once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards resolution [1].
Would a peace agreement that gives Russia the territory resolve the contract?
A negotiated settlement can qualify for Yes if Russia comes into actual control of the specified territory. An announcement that gives Russia de jure control does not qualify, because actual control must be established [1].
Do temporary map errors affect resolution?
No. The rules state that temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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