GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

Name: Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$22.81K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

Vol

$22.81K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $22.81K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $22.81K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Poly	85%
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?	Poly	37%
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Poly	15%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$22.81K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $22.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $19.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.16)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 1, 2026): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $8.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics