Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
PM $509.3K
1
3
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
PM $509.3K
1
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is June 30, 2027 at 57.5%.
Polymarket
- June 30, 202757.5%
- March 31, 202718%
- December 319.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $509.3K
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-c65ebdaaff.png Train Station Location in Orikhiv: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-b63c422f94.png Orikhiv Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-aee64f6cc6.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/DrzoGJft79yx9dxd9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks whether Russia will capture Orikhiv, and its rules define capture narrowly. The market resolves "Yes" if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv, and the station counts as captured only if "any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map" by the resolution date [1]. The qualifying layers are "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain" and "Assessed Russian Advances." The rules exclude "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas" and "Claimed Russian Territory" [1].
Other conditions matter for comparison. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle, and later loss of control does not reverse a "Yes" [1]. A negotiated settlement can qualify only if actual control is established, since "an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify" [1]. If ISW is unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used, and if both are permanently unavailable, "a consensus of credible reporting may be used" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved data contains three contracts from one event, each with a different deadline. The contract ending December 31, 2026 showed Yes at 0.145 and No at 0.855. The March 31, 2027 contract showed Yes at 0.325 and No at 0.675. The June 30, 2027 contract showed Yes at 0.575 and No at 0.425 [1]. The listed end times are 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, 2027-04-01T03:59:00Z, and 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z, respectively, which correspond to the 11:59 PM ET deadlines in the rules [1].
These prices were observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:04:23.462Z [1]. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the contracts ask about different deadlines, their prices should not be read as competing views on one question, and they should not be averaged or treated as arbitrage opportunities. The saved volume data is not included here, so it cannot indicate liquidity or trader counts.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all three saved markets for this event, and the coverage record reports no partial sample [1]. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for Orikhiv. The evidence does not show the current state of the ISW map, recent events, or why any price moved. Readers should check the live provider and the ISW map for any current status.
References
- Polymarket: Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This Polymarket event asks whether Russia will capture Orikhiv, a city in Polohy Raion, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in southern Ukraine [2]. The contract does not ask about the whole city. It resolves on a single location, the train station in Orikhiv at coordinates 47.559860 N, 35.786219 E [1]. The rules define capture by map shading. The market resolves Yes if, according to the ISW map, any part of the train station icon is shaded under the Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain or Assessed Russian Advances layers, and that shading persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update [1]. Shading under the Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas or Claimed Russian Territory layers does not qualify [1]. Once a qualifying condition is met, a later loss of control does not affect resolution [1]. The rules also address negotiated outcomes. If Russia gains control of the station through a negotiated settlement, the market resolves Yes even without qualifying shading. An announced settlement that gives Russia de jure control, without actual control being established, does not qualify [1]. Each market in the event uses the same station and rules but a different deadline: December 31, 2026, March 31, 2027, and June 30, 2027. Each deadline runs to 11:59 PM ET on that date, and the listed end times in the saved data are the equivalent UTC timestamps [1]. Because the earlier contracts close earlier, their prices can differ from the later ones for reasons unrelated to any mismatch in pricing, so a difference between contracts is not in itself an arbitrage opportunity.
Historical Context
Orikhiv had an estimated population of 13,896 as of 1 January 2022 [2]. Early in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, many residents were evacuated, about 6,000 remained by August 2022, and the city was shelled constantly by Russian artillery [2]. In February 2024, it was estimated that around 1,000 to 1,400 people remained in the city [2]. Separately, in February 2026 Ukraine launched a local counteroffensive on the southern front aimed at expelling Russian forces from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which later extended into Donetsk Oblast [3]. The supplied background on that counteroffensive does not mention Orikhiv or Zaporizhzhia Oblast, so it should not be read as describing the situation around the station.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific, map-based outcome: whether a designated train station in Orikhiv is shown as Russian-controlled or advancing on the ISW map by a given deadline [1]. It does not measure overall control of the city, broader front-line movements, or claims made by either side. Shading under the infiltration and claimed-territory layers is excluded, so a claim or an infiltration area alone would not resolve the market [1]. Because the contract relies on a particular map and a persistence requirement, the outcome depends on how that map is updated and on whether shading holds through a full update cycle. The rules also say that a negotiated settlement can resolve Yes only when actual control is established [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the market resolve on news reports of fighting in Orikhiv?
No. The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map, and the contract uses DeepStateMap only if the ISW map is unavailable [1]. A consensus of credible reporting is used only if both maps are permanently unavailable [1].
Does a capture of any part of Orikhiv count?
Not necessarily. The contract is about the train station at the specified coordinates, not the whole city [1]. Shading must cover some part of that station icon under a qualifying layer [1].
Would a negotiated settlement resolve the market?
Only if Russia comes into actual control of the station through the settlement. An announcement giving Russia de jure control does not qualify [1].
Why are there three separate contracts?
Each contract uses the same station and rules but a different deadline, and each closes on its own date [1]. The earlier contracts have earlier end times, so they are separate questions rather than one question with several answers [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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