Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 9:10 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

Name: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
End: 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.97K

Events

Markets

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What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

Vol

$2.97K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.97K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.97K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Trump's approval rating hit 37% by June 30, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump's approval rating hit 37% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	84%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	66%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	51%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	46%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	40%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	30%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 41% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	21%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 32% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	20%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 42% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	13%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	10%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	8%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% by June 30, 2027?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

84%

Top Probability

$2.97K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling reaches the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on any date between market creation and June 30, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For markets listed with an upward arrow (↑), the approval rating must be equal to or higher than the listed value. For markets listed with a downward arrow (↓), the approval rating must be equal to or lower than the listed value. This market's resolution source

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 1, 2027 (261 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling reaches the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on any date between market creation and June 30, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For markets listed with an upward arrow (↑), the approval rating must be equal to or higher than the listed value. For markets listed with a downward arrow (↓), the approval rating must be equal to or lower than the listed value.

This market's resolution source

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling reaches the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on any date between market creation and June 30, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For markets listed with an upward arrow (↑), the approval rati"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump's approval rating hit 46% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $302
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump's approval rating hit 44% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $411
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump's approval rating hit 42% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $59
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump's approval rating hit 41% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $158
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $310
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump's approval rating hit 37% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump's approval rating hit 36% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $219
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $107
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Trump's approval rating hit 32% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $99
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics