Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Next President of Germany?

Name: Next President of Germany?
End: 2027-01-30T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$476.90

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Markets

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Next President of Germany?

Vol

$476.90

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $476.90

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $476.90

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Udo Di Fabio be the next President of Germany?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Udo Di Fabio be the next President of Germany?	Poly	23%
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany?	Poly	22%
Will Karin Prien be the next President of Germany?	Poly	21%
Will Julia Klöckner be the next President of Germany?	Poly	20%
Will Boris Rhein be the next President of Germany?	Poly	14%
Will Angela Merkel be the next President of Germany?	Poly	12%
Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer be the next President of Germany?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$476.90

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Germany is currently scheduled to indirectly elect a new president on January 30, 2027. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of President of Germany by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in as President of Germany. Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such President takes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next President of Germany?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 30, 2027 (110 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Germany is currently scheduled to indirectly elect a new president on January 30, 2027.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of President of Germany by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in as President of Germany. Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such President takes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Germany is currently scheduled to indirectly elect a new president on January 30, 2027.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of President of Germany by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in as Pr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $477
* **Total Liquidity:** $44.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 30, 2027): Vol $189
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Karin Prien be the next President of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 30, 2027): Vol $45
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Udo Di Fabio be the next President of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 30, 2027): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Julia Klöckner be the next President of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 30, 2027): Vol $45
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Boris Rhein be the next President of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 30, 2027): Vol $43
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer be the next President of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 30, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Angela Merkel be the next President of Germany?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 30, 2027): Vol $125
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics