Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?

Total Volume

$2.17K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?

Vol

$2.17K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.17K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.17K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

EU long-term budget deal before July 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
EU long-term budget deal before July 2027?	Kalshi	57%
EU long-term budget deal before 2027?	Kalshi	27%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$2.17K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before July 2027 If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget, MFF, as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The European Council must officially declare that all 27 EU member states have reached political agreement on the overall 2028-2034 MFF terms. X commitment or timetable to reach agreement

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will the EU reach a long-term budget deal?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before July 2027

If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget, MFF, as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The European Council must officially declare that all 27 EU member states have reached political agreement on the overall 2028-2034 MFF terms. X commitment or timetable to reach agreement

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Se"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. EU long-term budget deal before July 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. EU long-term budget deal before 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics