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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Name: Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$403.75K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Vol

$403.75K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $403.75K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $403.75K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Poly	9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$403.75K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal wi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal wi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $328.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $70.5K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.67)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $139.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $189.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics