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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
Vol

PM $631.41

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Events

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Markets

2

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is November 30 at 50%.

Polymarket

  1. November 3050%
  2. October 312.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $631.41

Reported volume · provider units

2

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. The occurrence of a qualifying meeting must be confirmed by the resolution sources by the resolution date. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by...?

PM $17.1K
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Yes 49.5%
Israel x Syria diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Yes 7%
2 mktsNext deadline Oct 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

PM $1.98M
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes 43%
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes 42.5%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes 41.5%
+21 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

PM $210.2K
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?Yes 52.5%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?Yes 22.1%
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Switzerland by December 31, 2026?Yes 9.7%
+16 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

PM $182.4K
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 31?Yes 87%
1 mktNext deadline Nov 1, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

PM $8.62M
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027?Yes 42.5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2027?Yes 22.5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by March 31, 2027?Yes 15.5%
+1 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketKalshiWorld
Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?

Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?

PM $6.37M · K 510.3K contracts

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029?

Related contracts

PM Yes 3.1%Rules differK Yes 36.5%

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Kalshi: Will Israel and Syria normalize relations before Jan 20, 2029?

Related contracts

PM Yes 4.9%Rules differK Yes 14%

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Kalshi: Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

Related contracts

PM Yes 6.5%Rules differK Yes 4.3%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

6 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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