Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

2nd richest person on December 31?

Name: 2nd richest person on December 31?
End: 2027-01-03T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$48.17K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

2nd richest person on December 31?

Vol

$48.17K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $48.17K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $48.17K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	53%
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	37%
Will Michael Dell be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	28%
Will Steve Ballmer be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	25%
Will Jensen Huang be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	24%
Will Warren Buffett be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	22%
Will Bernard Arnault be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	12%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	9%
Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	4%
Will Larry Ellison be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	3%
Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

53%

Top Probability

$48.17K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #2 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2nd richest person on December 31?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 3, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the name ranked #2 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the name ranked #2 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $48.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $4.7K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.24)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Larry Ellison be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Mark Zuckerberg be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $728
  DATA: [Yes: 9.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Bernard Arnault be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jensen Huang be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Warren Buffett be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.1% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Steve Ballmer be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 24.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.3% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $21.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.8% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Michael Dell be 2nd richest person on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech