GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?

Name: Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
End: 2026-09-03T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$28.00K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?

Vol

$28.00K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $28.00K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $28.00K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Chile by August 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Chile by August 31?	Poly	3%
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Mexico by August 31?	Poly	0%
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the Philippines by August 31?	Poly	0%
Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the United States by August 31?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$28.00K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No". A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 3, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".

A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territor

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the spe"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.71)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Chile by August 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 3, 2026): Vol $453
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the Philippines by August 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 3, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Mexico by August 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 3, 2026): Vol $846
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in the United States by August 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 3, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate