Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Name: Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

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Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

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Market	Platform	Price
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	Poly	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

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$0.00

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About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (277 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immedia"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

276d 11h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

21¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/kE3bil" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?"></iframe>

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Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

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Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)