Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Name: Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
End: 2026-10-20T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$11.09K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Vol

$11.09K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $11.09K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.09K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Poly	57%
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Poly	22%
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Poly	19%
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%?	Poly	5%
Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum?	Poly	2%
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$11.09K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Governme

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 20, 2026 (9 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?"

For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Governme

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $161.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by at least 80%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $416
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $989
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by less than 20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $491
  DATA: [Yes: 5.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.6% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld