BackPPOLYMARKET

Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum?

Yes2%-0.1%

Vol$3.30K

Outcomes2

2%

TradeTrade on Polymarket

MarketPOLYMARKETactive

Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum?

MarketPOLYMARKETactiveOther

Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum?

Part of: Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

NoNo Price

98¢

|

VolTotal Volume

$3.30K

|

Outcomes

2

Ends

Oct 20, 2026

in 8 days

Trade on Polymarket

Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum?

Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum?

No

98¢

|

Vol

$3.30K

|

Outcomes

2

Yes2.0¢

No98.0¢

Price History

Will "Leave" win the Alberta independence referendum?

No historical data available

Price history will appear here when available

Resolution Info

Market Stats

Resolution Countdown

8 Days Left

October 20, 2026 • 3:59 AM

Last Updated

less than a minute ago

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Resolution Information

Status

Active

Expected Resolution

October 20, 2026

3:59 AM GMT+0

UMA Protocol

Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.

Accuracy

99.7%

Resolved

15,420

Avg Time

< 2 hours

Disputes

0.3%

Resolution Criteria

Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast on Question 10. If "Leave" receives more valid votes than "Remain", this market will resolve to "Leave wins". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Remain" and "Leave" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Remain <20%". This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Alberta, including Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Market Still Active

This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.