GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

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July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

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$0.00

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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12 markets tracked

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will U3 be 4.1% or below AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	6%
Will U3 be 4.1% or below AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will U3 be 4.1% or below AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will U3 be 4.4% or above AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will U3 be 4.4% or above AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will U3 be 4.4% or above AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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14%

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$0.00

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About This Event

For Jul 2026 If ALL of the following occur for July 2026: U3: X or Y NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes. For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, U-3, and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, as reported in thousands of jobs by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** For Jul 2026

If ALL of the following occur for July 2026: U3: X or Y NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes. For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, U-3, and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment, as reported in thousands of jobs by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If ALL of the following occur for July 2026: U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will U3 be 4.4% or above AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will U3 be 4.4% or above AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will U3 be 4.4% or above AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will U3 be 4.1% or below AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will U3 be 4.1% or below AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will U3 be 4.1% or below AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 14, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

Volume$0.00

Markets12

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KALSHI

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

If ALL of the following occur for July 2026: U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 100k or above, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-

KALSHI

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

If ALL of the following occur for July 2026: U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-mont

KALSHI

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?

If ALL of the following occur for July 2026: U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-month c

KALSHI

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

If ALL of the following occur for July 2026: U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-

KALSHI

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

If ALL of the following occur for July 2026: U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For all outcomes in this market, U3 refers to the single-decimal seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3), and NFP growth refers to the seasonally adjusted over-the-mont

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9¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/l3DOI4" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP"></iframe>

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July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

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Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

Markets (12)

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

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Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

July 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 50-99k for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.3% AND NFP growth be 100k or above for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

Will U3 be 4.2% AND NFP growth be Below 50k for Jul 2026?

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