The Turkish general election scheduled for 2028 will determine the composition of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM) and, indirectly, the country's leadership. Under Turkey's presidential system, voters will elect 600 Members of Parliament (MPs) for five-year terms. The election winner, as defined by the prediction market, is the party, coalition, or alliance that secures the most seats in parliament. This definition matters because Turkey's electoral system uses a 7% national threshold for parties to enter parliament, and alliances can pool votes to overcome this hurdle. The election is significant as it will shape the political direction of a NATO member state with a strategic location between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, and it will test the durability of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule, which has dominated Turkish politics for over two decades. The political landscape in Turkey has been in flux since the 2023 elections, where Erdoğan secured a third term as president and the AKP-led People's Alliance won a parliamentary majority. However, the country faces severe economic challenges, including high inflation, a depreciating lira, and a cost-of-living crisis. These issues have eroded public support for the government, as reflected in the 2024 local elections, where the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) won major municipalities, including Istanbul and Ankara. The 2028 election will be a critical test for both the government and the opposition, with the opposition seeking to build on its local gains and the government aiming to reverse its losses. Interest in the 2028 election extends beyond Turkey's borders. The outcome will affect Turkey's foreign policy, including its relations with the European Union, the United States, Russia, and Middle Eastern states. It will also influence regional security dynamics, particularly regarding Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, and NATO's southern flank. Additionally, Turkey's large and young population, its role as a major refugee host, and its economic potential make the election a key indicator of the country's future trajectory. For investors, businesses, and policymakers, the election outcome will have direct implications for trade, energy routes, and migration flows. For those following the market, the key question is which party or alliance will win the most seats in 2028. As of now, the AKP and its allies are the incumbents, but the CHP has emerged as a strong challenger, buoyed by its 2024 local election success. The market will track the evolving dynamics, including potential alliances, leadership changes, and electoral system reforms, to predict the most likely winner.

Historical Context

Turkey's modern political history is rooted in the transition from a single-party system to multi-party democracy in 1946. Since then, the country has experienced multiple military coups, most notably in 1960, 1971, 1980, and a post-modern intervention in 1997. These interventions have shaped the political landscape, with parties often being banned and leaders removed. The AKP, founded in 2001, rose to power in 2002 after a severe economic crisis, winning a landslide victory. Under Erdoğan, the AKP initially pursued EU accession reforms, but later consolidated power, culminating in the 2017 constitutional referendum that replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential one. This change, narrowly approved, abolished the prime minister's office and concentrated executive power in the presidency. The 2023 general election was a landmark, occurring under the shadow of the devastating February 2023 earthquakes that killed over 50,000 people. Despite predictions of a close race, Erdoğan won the presidential runoff with 52.2% of the vote, and the People's Alliance (AKP and MHP) secured a majority in parliament. However, the opposition alliance, known as the Nation Alliance, which included the CHP, İYİ, and others, failed to unseat Erdoğan, leading to its dissolution. The 2024 local elections were a setback for the AKP, as the CHP won 35 of 81 provinces, including the major cities of Istanbul, Ankara, and İzmir, marking the first time the CHP won more votes than the AKP in a nationwide election since 1977. The electoral system has evolved significantly. Since 2018, Turkey uses a system with 87 electoral districts, each electing a varying number of MPs based on population. The 7% national threshold, introduced in 2022, is one of the highest in the world, and it applies to parties, not alliances. Alliances, however, can pool their votes to overcome the threshold collectively. This system encourages pre-election pacts, as seen in the People's Alliance and the Nation Alliance. The 2028 election will be the second under this system, and the threshold may be a decisive factor for smaller parties like the İYİ Party or the DEM Party, which could fail to enter parliament if they run alone.