What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
PM $126.69
1
10
What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
PM $126.69
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Mr Speaker 30+ times at 77%.
Polymarket
- Mr Speaker 30+ times77%
- Defence76.5%
- Reform72.5%
- Scotland71.5%
- Wales67.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $126.69
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Andy Burnham is scheduled to participate in the Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the Commons Chamber in the Palace of Westminster on every Wednesday. (https://www.parliament.uk/visiting/visiting-and-tours/watch-committees-and-debates/prime-ministers-questions/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens or Andy Burnham does not participate in a Prime Minister's Question Time event by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring Andy Burnham titled "Prime Minister's Question Time" (https://www.parallelparliament.co.uk/mp/andy-burnham/dept/cabinet-office/calendar). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the events. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks what Andy Burnham will say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event [1]. Each word contract resolves to "Yes" if he says the listed term during the next Prime Minister's Question Time event he participates in, and to "No" otherwise [1]. Speeches or comments outside named, scheduled events do not qualify, and the resolution source is audio or video of the events [1].
A separate "-No Qualifying Event-" bracket resolves to "Yes" if no qualifying event occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if he ceases to be Prime Minister for any length of time before then. In that case all other brackets resolve to "No" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-22T03:59:00.000Z, which differs from the October 31 rule deadline. The excerpt does not explain how the two relate [1].
Threshold contracts are separate markets. "Mr Speaker" appears at 12+, 20+, and 30+ thresholds, and the "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" contract requires 5+ mentions [1]. Each has its own price, so they should not be read as one probability ladder.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-20T05:03:27.397Z [1]. These figures describe that earlier snapshot only, not current conditions.
The sample covers 12 of 15 markets from this single provider event, so it is partial [1]. Markets were selected by descending Yes price, which means omitted markets cannot be assumed to be priced lower. The sample also does not show the "-No Qualifying Event-" bracket, so its price is unknown here.
In the snapshot, the "Mr Speaker" 12+ contract was quoted at Yes 0.967, "Defence" at 0.91, and "Budget" at 0.905 [1]. "Trump" was quoted at 0.30 and the "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ contract at 0.265 [1]. These are quoted prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The excerpt contains no volume data, and volume would not indicate liquidity or trader count in any case.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, how many participants hold each view, or when the next PMQ event will take place. It also does not show whether Andy Burnham will participate, since that depends on events after the snapshot. Different contracts with different prices are not, on their own, an arbitrage opportunity, because wording and thresholds differ.
References
- Polymarket: What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T03:00:06.020Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a mention market tied to Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) in the House of Commons. It asks whether Andy Burnham will say a listed term during the next PMQ event he participates in. The event is titled Prime Minister's Question Time, and the resolution source is audio or video of the event [1]. The provider states that Burnham is scheduled to take part in PMQs in the Commons Chamber on every Wednesday [1]. The provider's rules add that speeches, events, or comments outside named, scheduled events do not count toward resolution [1]. The contract assumes a particular political position for Burnham. A Wikipedia article retrieved on 20 October 2026 describes him as having served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Labour Party since July 2026, and as Member of Parliament for Makerfield since June 2026 [2]. That article describes his role as a source, so this background does not independently confirm his office as of the present day. The contract's own rules show that the market would resolve differently if he ceased to be Prime Minister for any length of time before the deadline [1]. Each market in the sample asks about a specific word or phrase, such as "Mr Speaker" at different frequency thresholds, "Defence", "Budget", "Scotland", "NHS", or "Trump" [1]. Each one has a Yes and No side, and the displayed prices are snapshots from the provider rather than executable quotes.
Historical Context
The Wikipedia article on the mayoralty of Andy Burnham states that his term as Mayor of Greater Manchester began on 8 May 2017 after his victory in the region's inaugural mayoral election. It concluded on 18 June 2026, upon his disqualification as a result of his election as a Member of Parliament [3]. The Burnham article adds that he was MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017 and held several Cabinet positions before becoming Mayor [2]. These are historical facts from retrieved encyclopedia pages, not a live update on current events.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow event: whether a specific word is spoken during a scheduled PMQ session in which Burnham participates. The rules count only audio or video of named, scheduled Prime Minister's Question Time events, so remarks made elsewhere do not affect resolution [1]. The contract also resolves to the No Qualifying Event outcome if no such session occurs with Burnham participating by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if he stops being Prime Minister for any length of time before that deadline [1]. The listed end time in the provider data is 2026-10-22T03:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed market end time, not a confirmed date for the next PMQ session, and the sources supplied do not identify when that session will take place.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-20 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as a qualifying event for this contract?
Only a named, scheduled Prime Minister's Question Time event in which Andy Burnham participates counts. Speeches, events, or comments outside named scheduled events do not qualify [1].
What happens if no qualifying event occurs?
If no such Prime Minister's Question Time event happens, or Burnham does not take part in one by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the No Qualifying Event outcome resolves Yes and all other outcomes resolve No [1].
What is the resolution source?
The resolution source is audio or video of the events [1].
Does a price in the sample show the likelihood of the outcome?
The provider describes these figures as market prices at the time of retrieval, and the sample is partial, with 12 of 15 markets included for this event [1]. The prices are snapshots, and the sources do not establish them as verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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