Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?

Total Volume

$70.67K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?

Vol

$70.67K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $70.67K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $70.67K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$70.67K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Isaias (2026); sustained winds of at least 74 mph If, after this market is issued and before 12:00 AM EST on December 31, 2026, the 2026 named storm Isaias has an official National Hurricane Center track segment that intersects with or terminates within the defined Alabama boundary, where both consecutive advisories report sustained winds of at least 74 mph, the advisories are issued no more than 12 hours apart, and both contain latitude/longitude coordinates rounded to the nearest 0.1 degree,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Isaias (2026); sustained winds of at least 74 mph

If, after this market is issued and before 12:00 AM EST on December 31, 2026, the 2026 named storm Isaias has an official National Hurricane Center track segment that intersects with or terminates within the defined Alabama boundary, where both consecutive advisories report sustained winds of at least 74 mph, the advisories are issued no more than 12 hours apart, and both contain latitude/longitude coordinates rounded to the nearest 0.1 degree, 

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $70.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $70.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather