Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Longest GitHub critical incident in October?

Name: Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
End: 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$12.55K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Longest GitHub critical incident in October?

Vol

$12.55K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.55K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.55K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	Poly	37%
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	Poly	30%
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?	Poly	28%
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?	Poly	3%
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

37%

Top Probability

$12.55K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”). An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Longest GitHub critical incident in October?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 1, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).

An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).

An incident wi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.15)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be less than 1 hour?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $866
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be at least 12 hours?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech