US airline fares CPI for October
K 5.8K contracts
1
14
US airline fares CPI for October
K 5.8K contracts
1
14
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 334 at 69.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 33469.5%
- Above 32467.5%
- Above 32267.5%
- Above 32067.5%
- Above 31867.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 5.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
14
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
October 2026 If the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for October 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses FRED series CUSR0000SETG01: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average, which is published monthly and is seasonally adjusted. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks whether the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for October 2026 will be above a stated threshold. The source states that if the index is "above X then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each market in the sample uses a different threshold X, so each one is a separate question.
The source says the market "uses FRED series CUSR0000SETG01," which is "published monthly and is seasonally adjusted" [1]. Contract wording therefore depends on that specific series and its seasonal adjustment, not on any unadjusted airfare measure.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T04:41:35.843Z [1]. These are snapshot values from that observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample includes 12 of 14 markets from this Kalshi event, so it is partial [1]. The included markets were ordered by highest finite Yes price, then volume. The highest included threshold, above 334, shows a Yes price of 0.695 and a No price of 0.305 [1]. The markets for thresholds from 344 down to 320 each show Yes and No prices of 0.50 [1]. Because the two omitted markets are outside the included sample, their prices are unknown. Do not assume they are lower.
Every market in this sample has the same listed end date, 2026-11-17T15:00:00.000Z [1]. However, the source excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied" and that the market "will close and expire early if the economic data is released" [1]. The listed date therefore should not be read as the resolution time. Prices for different thresholds should not be compared as if they were the same contract, and no cross-platform comparison is possible from this single event.
What remains uncertain
The source does not explain the price levels. It does not show trading volume in the excerpt, so volume cannot be used as a measure of liquidity or of the number of traders. The identical 0.50 prices across ten thresholds may reflect the snapshot conditions, but the evidence does not explain them, so they should be interpreted cautiously.
Resolution has not occurred based on the supplied evidence. Whether and when the underlying data will be released is not stated in the source. The provider status is listed as "active" [1].
References
- Kalshi: US airline fares CPI for October. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This Kalshi event is a contract tied to the US Consumer Price Index for airline fares for October 2026. The contract rule says that if the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for October 2026 is above a stated threshold X, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rule names the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series CUSR0000SETG01, which is published monthly and is seasonally adjusted [1]. In other words, the question is whether that official index value for October 2026 lands above a specific number. The event is listed as active in the provider record, and the saved event excerpt says the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The provider's market records carry an end date of 2026-11-17T15:00:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is a contract closing field in the saved data, not an announced publication date for the index, and the supplied material does not establish when the data will be released. Each threshold in this event is a separate yes or no market on the same underlying index value. The thresholds in the sample range from 320 to 344 index points. Because they all reference one number, the markets are related, but each one resolves on its own threshold. The prices shown are snapshots from the provider record. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The volume figures in the source data measure trading activity on the contract, not liquidity or the number of traders.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single monthly statistic: the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for airline fares in the US City Average for October 2026, as identified by the FRED series CUSR0000SETG01 [1]. The rule ties resolution to whether that published value is above the threshold a given market specifies [1]. Traders following the contract are therefore forecasting one official data point, not a broader measure of airfare or travel prices. Because the rule relies on a specific published series, the exact series identifier and the seasonal adjustment matter for how the question resolves [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean on this contract?
According to the contract rule, the market resolves to Yes if the October 2026 value of the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average is above the threshold stated in that specific market [1].
Which data series does the contract use?
The rule uses FRED series CUSR0000SETG01, described as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average. The source notes that this series is published monthly and is seasonally adjusted [1].
Does the listed end date tell me when the index will be published?
No. The provider record lists an end date of 2026-11-17T15:00:00.000Z [1], but the event excerpt says the market will close and expire early if the economic data is released [1]. The supplied evidence does not state a separate publication date, so the end date should not be read as the release date.
Does a price of 0.50 mean the market expects a 50 percent chance?
No. The saved prices are snapshots from the provider record and are not verified probabilities or executable quotes. Several included thresholds show a Yes price of 0.50 in this snapshot [1], but the supplied evidence does not explain those values.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
