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Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Next Grok Model (4.6+): Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Name: Next Grok Model (4.6+): Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$15.89K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Next Grok Model (4.6+): Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Vol

$15.89K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $15.89K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.89K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?	Poly	95%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Poly	76%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Poly	36%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Poly	9%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$15.89K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Grok Model (4.6+) model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Grok Model (4.6+): Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Grok Model (4.6+) model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Grok Model (4.6+) model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.0K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.98)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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