GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

US recession by end of 2027?

Name: US recession by end of 2027?
End: 2027-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$7.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

US recession by end of 2027?

Vol

$7.01K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $7.01K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.01K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

US recession by end of 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
US recession by end of 2027?	Poly	31%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$7.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US recession by end of 2027?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2027 (483 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $17.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.40)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US recession by end of 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy