#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
PM $88.5K
1
21
#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
PM $88.5K
1
21
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Meta at 54.1%.
Polymarket
- Meta54.1%
- Anthropic31%
- Alibaba4.4%
- Moonshot2.4%
- Google1.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $88.5K
Reported volume · provider units
21
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market resolves to the company in third place on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard, with Style Control On, when the table is filtered for "Labs" and checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET [1]. Models marked "AutoEval" at the check time are excluded. Companies are ordered primarily by Lab Rank, then by their highest-ranking model, then by model score, and finally by alphabetical order of company names [1]. If the leaderboard is unavailable, the market stays open until it returns. It resolves to "Other" only if the source becomes permanently unavailable [1].
Each contract is a separate yes or no question about one company. The event's listed end time is 2026-10-31T16:00:00.000Z [1]. The Meta, Anthropic, and most other individual contracts show an end date of 2026-11-01T03:59:00.000Z, while the Google contract shows 2026-10-31T16:00:00.000Z [1]. Readers should check the listed time on the specific contract they are reading rather than assume they close together.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-23T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-23T04:13:21Z [1]. These are values from that earlier snapshot, not live quotes or current prices, and they are not verified probabilities. In the sample, Yes prices were Meta 0.65, Anthropic 0.218, Alibaba 0.0165, OpenAI 0.0115, and Google 0.0105 [1]. The remaining included contracts were priced at or below 0.007 [1].
The sample is partial. Twelve of 21 markets from this provider event were included, selected by Yes price and then volume [1]. The nine omitted markets are not shown, so they should not be assumed to have lower prices than those listed. Because only one provider event is supplied, the rankings here should not be combined with other events or platforms.
Volume is not part of this summary, and it does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The outcome is not known from this evidence, and the leaderboard check occurs after the snapshot, so rankings may change. The evidence does not explain why any price moved. These prices are not executable quotes. A gap between prices on different contracts is not an arbitrage opportunity, especially where close times or resolution wording differ. This single source cannot support a cross-platform comparison.
References
- Polymarket: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On). Provider data observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a Polymarket event titled "#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)." It resolves according to the company that occupies third place under the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control on, when the table is filtered for "Labs" [1]. The rules specify that the check happens on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET [1]. The rules set out how companies are ordered. Companies are ranked primarily by their Lab Rank at the check time. If that ranking is ambiguous or unavailable, companies are ordered by their highest-ranking model in the leaderboard's Models view. Tied models are ordered by Arena score, including unrounded values, and any remaining tie is broken alphabetically by company name as listed in the market group [1]. Models marked "AutoEval" at the check time are excluded, whether or not they display a rank or score [1]. If the resolution source is unavailable at the check time, the market stays open until the leaderboard returns and resolves on the first check after it becomes available. If the source becomes permanently unavailable, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Each company in the event has its own Yes or No contract asking whether that company will be third. The saved event lists 21 such markets. This view includes 12 of them, selected by highest Yes price and then by volume [1]. Because the sample is partial, it does not show the full field, and a company's absence from this view does not indicate its price. Prices are snapshots rather than executable quotes, and volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count. The timing has several layers. The observation, the source retrieval, the contract close, and the resolution are separate events. The rules' October 31 check time is a condition of the contract, not an announced event. The saved market records also show different end timestamps, with most set to November 1, 2026 at 03:59 UTC and the Google contract set to October 31, 2026 at 16:00 UTC [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the relative standing of AI labs on one named leaderboard at one named time. It asks which company is in third place under the Lab Rank for the Text Arena (Overall) with style control on, not which company has the best model overall [1]. The leaderboard concerns text output. Generative AI is described as a field that uses generative models to produce text, images, video, audio, code, and other digital data [2], so this contract covers only the text portion of that field. Because the ranking can change between now and the check time, the outcome depends on the leaderboard state at that moment. Tiebreaker rules and the AutoEval exclusion can also affect which company is placed third [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines the outcome of this contract?
The market resolves to the company in third place under the Lab Rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard with style control on, filtered for Labs, when checked on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET [1].
How are ties handled?
Companies are first ordered by Lab Rank. If results are ambiguous or unavailable, they are ordered by their highest-ranking model in the Models view. Tied models are ordered by Arena score, including unrounded values, and any remaining tie is broken alphabetically by company name [1].
Are all models on the leaderboard counted?
No. Models marked AutoEval at the applicable check time are not considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score [1].
What happens if the leaderboard is unavailable at the check time?
The market remains open until the leaderboard returns and resolves on the first check after it becomes available. If the source becomes permanently unavailable, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
