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New Hampshire Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

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New Hampshire Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

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Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?	Kalshi	95%
Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 10%?	Kalshi	89%
Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 20%?	Kalshi	81%
Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 30%?	Kalshi	61%
Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 40%?	Kalshi	47%
Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 50%?	Kalshi	31%

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About This Event

On Sep 8, 2026 If the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary falls within X to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by John Sununu minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind John Sununu if John Sununu

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New Hampshire Republican Senate primary margin of victory?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Sep 8, 2026

If the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary falls within X to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by John Sununu minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind John Sununu if John Sununu 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary falls within 50% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the ma"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 40%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 30%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?

If the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the mar

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.5¢No 11.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 10%?

If the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary falls within 10% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the ma

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 20%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.0¢No 19.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 20%?

If the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary falls within 20% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the ma

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 30%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 30%?

If the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary falls within 30% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the ma

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 40%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 40%?

If the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary falls within 40% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the ma

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Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?

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Events (1)

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

Markets (6)

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 10%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 10%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 20%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 20%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 30%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 30%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 40%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 40%?

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Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

New Hampshire Republican Senate primary margin of victory?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 5%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 10%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 10%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 20%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 20%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 30%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 30%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 40%?

Will the margin of victory for John Sununu in the 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate primary be above 40%?

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