
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 23?
PM $31.02
1
11
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 23?

PM $31.02
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 23, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 16°C at 50%.
Polymarket
- 16°C50%
- 17°C49.5%
- 18°C49.5%
- 13°C or below46%
- 14°C39.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $31.02
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 23, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature reported at Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport (VILK) on 23 Oct '26. The qualifying value is the lowest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport (VILK) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport (VILK) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=VILK&format=raw&date=2026-10-23T18:30:00Z&hours=27
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks which temperature range contains the lowest temperature reported at Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport (VILK) on 23 October 2026. The rules count only routine METAR observations, not SPECI special observations, and they use the hourly temperature remark when one is present. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, with exact halves rounded up, and that rounded value determines the range [1]. Each market in the event covers one range, so the outcomes are mutually exclusive bins rather than independent questions.
Resolution timing matters. The rules say the market resolves at the issuance of the first METAR for the station on the following day or by 11:59 PM ET on that day, whichever comes first. A fallback to Weather Underground applies if the Aviation Weather Center has not published a usable routine observation by that deadline [1]. The provider also lists an end time of 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That field is a provider data point, not a resolution event, and it does not match the 11:59 PM ET rule. Readers should rely on the rule text for timing.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-22T02:50:44.588Z [1]. They describe that moment only and are not current quotes. The Yes prices run from 0.305 for the 15°C range to 0.48 for the "23°C or higher" range and 0.475 for the "13°C or below" range. The middle ranges, from 14°C to 22°C, sit between about 0.30 and 0.34 [1].
These prices do not sum to one. Across the 11 saved Yes prices the total is 3.915, so the figures are not normalized probabilities and should not be read as verified chances. They are displayed quotes that may be wide, stale, or not executable at those levels.
The market set is complete for this event: 11 of 11 markets are included and the sample is not marked partial [1]. The sample warning still applies, because the saved markets do not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed. No other platform's prices are included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not show why any price was where it was, and no news, forecast, or trader count is supplied. Volume and the number of participants are not in this evidence, so the prices cannot be read as liquidity or consensus. The provider status is listed as active, but the evidence does not show any later observation.
References
- Polymarket: Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 23?. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a temperature contract tied to the lowest temperature recorded at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport (VILK) in Lucknow on October 23, 2026. Lucknow is the capital of Uttar Pradesh, a state in northern India [2]. The contract does not ask for a forecast or a general city temperature. It asks which temperature range contains the lowest value reported at that airport station on the observation date [1]. The qualifying value comes from routine METAR weather observations. Special observations, whose report lines begin with SPECI, do not count. Every other report counts, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label [1]. Where a routine observation includes an hourly temperature remark, that value is used. Where it does not, the temperature in the body of the observation governs for that report, in whole degrees Celsius [1]. A report with no temperature in either place is disregarded [1]. Each bracket is stated in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, and a value that ends in exactly half is rounded up to the next higher whole degree. The rounded value determines which bracket is satisfied [1]. The rules give examples, such as 13.9 degrees Celsius counting as 14 and negative 8.5 degrees counting as negative 8 [1]. The contract also uses the station's local time, including any daylight-saving shift, to decide whether a report falls on the observation date [1]. The saved event includes several bracket markets, each asking whether the lowest temperature will land in a specific range, such as a value of 13 degrees or below, or a value of 23 degrees or higher [1]. Each market is a separate yes or no contract on the same underlying measurement. Because the saved snapshot covers all eleven markets for this event, the included set is complete for that record, though the source notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1]. Resolution timing is set by the contract. The market resolves at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day after the observation date, or by 11:59 PM ET on that following day, whichever comes first [1]. The resolution source is the routine observation data for VILK published through the Aviation Weather Center [1]. If that source has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the date by the deadline, the contract names the Weather Underground Daily Observations table as the fallback. If neither source has published sufficient data by the deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1]. The rules also address corrections. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes are considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published, after which alterations are not considered [1]. If a source publishes data that is clearly erroneous because of technical or operational error, or because of unauthorized interference, the market may remain open for up to seven calendar days (ET) in anticipation of a correction. If no corrected value appears in that period, the platform may issue a clarification [1]. The listed end time in the saved record is 12:00 UTC on October 23, 2026 [1]. That field is part of the contract record and describes when the market is listed to end. It is not a separate announcement of an event, and the observation rules above determine how the measurement is taken.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, narrowly defined weather observation: the lowest routine temperature reported for one airport station on one date. Because the rules specify which report types count, how values are rounded, and which source is used, the outcome depends on the observation record rather than on general weather descriptions [1]. Its structure makes the exact observation rules, the station, and the time zone important for understanding what settles each bracket [1]. The contract also explains how unusual cases are handled, including missing data, corrected reports, and possible source errors [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which weather reports count toward the lowest temperature?
Only routine observations for the airport count. Reports whose line begins with SPECI are special observations and do not count. Routine reports count even when they are issued off the nominal hour or carry no METAR or SPECI label [1].
How is the temperature value rounded before it is matched to a bracket?
The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. A value that ends in exactly half is rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and the rounded value determines the bracket [1].
What happens if a routine observation does not include the hourly temperature remark?
The temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that report. It is given in whole degrees Celsius, and an observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded [1].
What is the fallback if the primary source has not published enough data?
If the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the date by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If neither source has published sufficient data by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket [1].
Can a corrected observation change the result?
A report counts whether or not it is marked as a correction. Changes are considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published. The rules also allow a market to remain open for up to seven calendar days if a source publishes clearly erroneous data that is expected to be corrected [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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