This prediction market focuses on China's annual GDP growth rate for 2026, measured as the year-over-year percentage change in Gross Domestic Product. The market will resolve based on the official 'Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP' release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, typically published by China's National Bureau of Statistics in January 2027. The specific figure is found in the table titled 'Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026' under the 'Growth Rate Y/Y (%)' column for the row labeled 'GDP' and the column 'Year 2026'. This data point is the primary indicator of China's economic performance for that calendar year. China's GDP growth is a critical metric for global economic analysis, influencing commodity prices, international trade flows, and financial market sentiment worldwide. The 2026 figure will be interpreted in the context of China's stated economic goals, including its transition to a 'high-quality development' model and its longer-term ambition to become a 'moderately developed' country by 2035. Analysts will scrutinize the number for evidence of structural shifts, the effectiveness of policy stimulus, and the economy's resilience to domestic and international headwinds. Interest in this specific forecast stems from China's role as the world's second-largest economy and a major engine of global growth. Investors, policymakers, and corporations use these projections to inform asset allocation, trade policy, and business strategy. The prediction market aggregates diverse opinions on the outcome, providing a collective assessment of economic prospects that complements traditional analyst forecasts.

Historical Context

China's annual GDP growth has followed a distinct trajectory over recent decades. Following double-digit expansion in the 2000s, growth began a gradual slowdown, a trend acknowledged by Chinese leaders as the 'new normal.' The government formally abandoned a hard GDP growth target in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, setting a flexible goal of 'above 6%' for 2021. Growth rebounded to 8.4% that year but has since moderated. In 2022, growth was 3.0%, significantly below the official target of around 5.5%, due to strict zero-COVID policies and a property sector downturn. For 2023, the target was set at 'around 5%', with the final figure coming in at 5.2%. The target for 2024 was again set at 'around 5%', indicating a prioritization of stability over rapid acceleration. This recent history of targets hovering near 5% establishes a baseline expectation. The period from 2020-2024 was also marked by a concerted regulatory crackdown on the technology, education, and property sectors, alongside a push for 'common prosperity.' These policies contributed to economic volatility and shaken investor confidence. The 2026 growth figure will be assessed against this backdrop of managed deceleration and structural rebalancing. It will also be measured against the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), which aimed for annual growth to stay within a 'reasonable range,' and will provide early evidence for the success of the subsequent 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030).

Frequently Asked Questions