Market snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory?

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Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory?

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Snapshot from Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

As of Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Nithya Raman, 8-10% at 49.5%.

Kalshi

Nithya Raman, 8-10%49.5%
Nithya Raman, 6-8%49.5%
Nithya Raman, 4-6%49.5%
Nithya Raman, 2-4%49.5%
Nithya Raman, ≥18%49.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

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17 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 10%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(17)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 10%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 6% and 8%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 4% and 6%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 2% and 4%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be at least 18%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 16% and 18%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 14% and 16%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 12% and 14%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 10% and 12%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 0% and 2%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 10%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 6% and 8%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 4% and 6%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 2% and 4%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be at least 12%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 10% and 12%?	Kalshi	49.5%
Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 0% and 2%?	Kalshi	49.5%

Rules & Resolution

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K 0 contracts

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Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC

About This Event

On Nov 3, 2026 If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within X to Y then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory?
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 0 contracts
Coverage: 17 of 17 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 10%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-NRAM-P9; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 8% to 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 6% and 8%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-NRAM-P7; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 6% to 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 4% and 6%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-NRAM-P5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 4% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 2% and 4%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-NRAM-P3; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be at least 18%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-NRAM-P18; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is at or above 18%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 16% and 18%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-NRAM-P17; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 16% to 18%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 14% and 16%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-NRAM-P15; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 14% to 16%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 12% and 14%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-NRAM-P13; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 12% to 14%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 10% and 12%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-NRAM-P11; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 10% to 12%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 0% and 2%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-NRAM-P1; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses. If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 8% and 10%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-KBAS-P9; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 8% to 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 6% and 8%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-KBAS-P7; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 6% to 8%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 4% and 6%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-KBAS-P5; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 4% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 2% and 4%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-KBAS-P3; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 2% to 4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be at least 12%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-KBAS-P12; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is at or above 12%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 10% and 12%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-KBAS-P11; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 10% to 12%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Contract: Will the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election be between 0% and 2%?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KXLAMAYORMOV-26NOV03-KBAS-P1; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov-26nov03
Observed: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 3, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 49.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.

Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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