Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner
PM $382.1K · K 53.6K contracts
4
73
Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner
PM $382.1K · K 53.6K contracts
4
73
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Matt Damon at 91.9%, and on Kalshi it is John Malkovich at 95%.
Polymarket
- Matt Damon91.9%
- John Malkovich87.5%
- Andrew Scott85%
- Tom Cruise61%
- Robert Pattinson49.5%
Kalshi
- John Malkovich95%
- Andrew Scott90%
- Matt Damon90%
- Ryan Gosling75%
- Robert Pattinson72%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $382.1K · K 53.6K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
73
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Polymarket event asks which actor wins Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. Each market in the sample is a separate Yes or No contract on one named actor. The rules state that the market "will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor" [1]. An actor who is not officially nominated when the nominees are announced resolves to "No" [1]. A tie resolves "in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order" [1]. If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
The listed end times differ. Twelve markets close at 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z, while two markets (Anthony Ippolito and Yura Borisov) list 2027-03-14T23:59:00.000Z [1]. These times are the contract closing times in the data. They are not a record that the ceremony has taken place.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T02:50:08.063Z [1]. These are observations from that snapshot, not live or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
Among the twelve included markets, the Yes prices are: John Malkovich 0.42, Matt Damon 0.175, Andrew Scott 0.17, Tom Cruise 0.14, Timothée Chalamet 0.0365, Robert Pattinson 0.034, John Turturro 0.0205, Ryan Gosling 0.0125, Sebastian Stan 0.0075, Jeremy Strong 0.0065, Anthony Ippolito 0.0055, and Yura Borisov 0.005 [1]. The sample holds the twelve markets with the highest finite Yes prices, so the listed prices show only those contracts.
What remains uncertain
The sample is partial. The event has 22 markets in total and 12 are included [1]. Nothing in the snapshot shows the prices of the ten omitted actors, so they should not be read as lower-priced or as a complete field. The "Other" outcome is also not among the listed markets.
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show how many traders are involved or how much liquidity sits behind each price. The volume figures are not included in this summary. Differences in price between contracts are not evidence of an arbitrage opportunity, and this record does not allow comparison with prices on other platforms.
References
- Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
The Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner contract is a Polymarket event tied to the 99th Academy Awards. According to the event rules, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) presents the Academy Awards annually to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film [1]. The contract rules refer to nominations being announced on January 21 and a ceremony on March 14, 2027 [1]. These are dates written into the contract, not confirmed announcements of events that have occurred. Each market in the event asks whether a named actor will win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards [1]. The event states that a market resolves according to the listed actor who wins the award [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from the Academy and AMPAS, including its website and the live broadcast of the ceremony, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The rules set three important conditions. If an actor is not officially nominated when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market resolves to "No" [1]. If there is a tie for the winner, the market resolves in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order [1]. If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The event lists an end time of 2027-07-01T03:59:00 UTC [1]. The market prices shown on this page are a snapshot observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06 UTC. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any outcome. The event sample includes 12 of 22 markets from the saved provider event, so it is a partial sample. Markets that are not shown were not ranked in this sample, and the absence of a market here does not indicate its price.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which actor, among those listed in each market, wins Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards [1]. Because the outcome is tied to an official award, the contract's rules define how a market resolves in cases such as a non-nominee, a tie, or no declared winner by the deadline [1]. Traders and readers can use the prices as a snapshot of market sentiment at one point in time, but the snapshot does not establish what will happen at the ceremony.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if an actor in a market is not nominated?
If an actor is not officially nominated for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market resolves to "No" [1].
How is a tie for the winner handled?
In case of a tie, the market resolves in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order [1].
What happens if no winner is declared by the deadline?
If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Do the prices show the chance that an actor will win?
The prices are snapshots observed at one time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. They should be read as recorded market prices, not as confirmed chances of winning.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
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