Florida gas prices tomorrow
K 1.4K contracts
1
17
Florida gas prices tomorrow
K 1.4K contracts
1
17
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 3.8800 at 92%.
Kalshi
- Above 3.880092%
- Above 3.875091%
- Above 3.89006.5%
- Above 3.88506.5%
- Above 3.94505%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.4K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
17
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 31, 2026 If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than X on Oct 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event is titled "Florida gas prices tomorrow" in the Economics category. Its rule states: "If average regular gas prices for Florida are strictly greater than X on Oct 31, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each listed market uses a different threshold X, so each one is a separate yes or no question about the same AAA average. The provider lists the event as active, but no listed end time is supplied in the source excerpt [1].
The platform's listed close time for each market is 2026-11-07T14:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not the resolution date, which the rule ties to Oct 31, 2026. The market endpoints do not show what AAA reported or when the contract will settle.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-31T07:34:28.672Z [1]. These are snapshots from that window. They are not live quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
Twelve of the event's 17 markets are included [1]. The sample ranks markets by Yes price, highest first, so the five omitted markets are not shown. The evidence does not say what those omitted markets were priced at, so no conclusion about them should be drawn.
The included Yes prices, by threshold, were:
- Above $3.8800: 0.92 Yes, 0.08 No
- Above $3.8750: 0.91 Yes, 0.09 No
- Above $3.8850: 0.065 Yes, 0.935 No
- Above $3.8900: 0.065 Yes, 0.935 No
- Above $3.9100 through $3.9300 (eight markets): 0.05 Yes, 0.95 No [1]
Within this snapshot, the price falls sharply between the $3.8750 and $3.8850 thresholds. Because the thresholds differ, the prices should not be averaged or treated as one distribution. The evidence does not explain why the prices are at these levels.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the AAA average for Oct 31, 2026, so it cannot show whether any threshold was or will be exceeded. It also does not include volume or trader counts, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view. Different thresholds on the same event are not an arbitrage opportunity just because their prices differ. Readers should check the live provider page for current prices and the settlement outcome before relying on any figure here.
References
- Kalshi: Florida gas prices tomorrow. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This Kalshi event asks whether the average regular gas price for Florida will be above a stated threshold on October 31, 2026, with AAA as the reference source for that average [1]. Each market in the event uses a different dollar threshold. Under the contract rules, a market resolves to Yes if the AAA Florida average is strictly greater than its threshold on that date [1]. The timestamps in the saved data serve different purposes and should not be read as one event. The provider data was observed at 03:00 UTC on October 31, 2026, and the source was retrieved at 07:34 UTC the same day. The market records carry a contract closing timestamp of November 7, 2026 at 14:00 UTC. That timestamp is a contract field, not an announced publication or resolution date, and the event page itself does not list an end time [1]. Retail gas prices are set by individual stations. A filling station receives fuel from refineries, stores it, and sells it to motorists at a price that can vary during the day [3]. A state average built from many stations can therefore change from one day to the next, which is why a threshold contract depends on the exact measurement the rules specify.
Historical Context
The supplied Wikipedia background describes the 2026 Iran war fuel crisis as a worldwide fuel crisis caused by a war between Iran and a U.S.-Israel coalition. It states that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of the world's oil trade passes, and attacks on energy infrastructure led to a large disruption in global oil supplies and rising oil prices [2]. This describes historical background only. It does not explain Florida gas prices on October 31, 2026, and it is not a current update on the crisis.
Why It Matters
The contract measures one number: the AAA average for regular gas in Florida on October 31, 2026, compared with a threshold [1]. Each threshold market asks whether that average will be strictly above a specific dollar amount, so the event is a set of related yes or no questions about one measurement [1]. Because the average is built from individual station prices that can change during the day [3], the contract's date and source rules determine what counts. The price shown for each market is a snapshot of market pricing at the observation time. It is not an executable quote or a verified probability of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean in this event?
A market resolves to Yes if the AAA average regular gas price for Florida is strictly greater than that market's threshold on October 31, 2026 [1].
Which source determines the price used for resolution?
The contract rules name AAA as the source for the average regular gas price in Florida [1].
Is the November 7, 2026 date when the contract resolves?
The market records show a contract closing timestamp of November 7, 2026 at 14:00 UTC [1]. The contract rules themselves refer to October 31, 2026 as the date of measurement, and the timestamp should not be treated as an announced resolution or publication date.
Why can a state gas price change during a single day?
Filling stations sell fuel to motorists at a daily varied price after receiving and storing it [3]. A statewide average can therefore move as station prices change.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
