Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will South Dakota cattle inventory rise YoY?

Total Volume

$11.14K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will South Dakota cattle inventory rise YoY?

Vol

$11.14K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $11.14K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.14K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will South Dakota’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 be above 3,550,000 head?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will South Dakota’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 be above 3,550,000 head?	Kalshi	24%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

24%

Top Probability

$11.14K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

January 1, 2027 If USDA NASS reports South Dakota’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 is above 3,550,000 head, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use USDA NASS’s Cattle, Including Calves - Inventory estimate for South Dakota as of January 1, 2027. This market covers all cattle and calves, not specifically beef cows, milk cows, or cattle on feed. NASS’s January Cattle report provides state-level inventory estimates; the July report only provides national estima

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will South Dakota cattle inventory rise YoY?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** January 1, 2027

If USDA NASS reports South Dakota’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 is above 3,550,000 head, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use USDA NASS’s Cattle, Including Calves - Inventory estimate for South Dakota as of January 1, 2027. This market covers all cattle and calves, not specifically beef cows, milk cows, or cattle on feed. NASS’s January Cattle report provides state-level inventory estimates; the July report only provides national estima

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If USDA NASS reports South Dakota’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 is above 3,550,000 head, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use USDA NASS’s Cattle, Including Calves - Inventory estimate for South Dakota as of January 1, 2027. This market cove"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will South Dakota’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 be above 3,550,000 head?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $11.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics