Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will Montana cattle inventory rise YoY?

Total Volume

$7.31K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Montana cattle inventory rise YoY?

Vol

$7.31K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $7.31K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.31K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Montana’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 be above 2,140,000 head?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Montana’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 be above 2,140,000 head?	Kalshi	31%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$7.31K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

January 1, 2027 If USDA NASS reports that Montana’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 is above 2,140,000 head, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is USDA NASS’s Cattle, Including Calves — Inventory estimate for Montana as of January 1, 2027. This includes all cattle and calves and is not limited to beef cows, dairy cows, or cattle on feed. The 2,140,000-head threshold is fixed and will not change if NASS later revises its January 1, 2026 estimate. This market w

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Montana cattle inventory rise YoY?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** January 1, 2027

If USDA NASS reports that Montana’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 is above 2,140,000 head, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is USDA NASS’s Cattle, Including Calves — Inventory estimate for Montana as of January 1, 2027. This includes all cattle and calves and is not limited to beef cows, dairy cows, or cattle on feed. The 2,140,000-head threshold is fixed and will not change if NASS later revises its January 1, 2026 estimate. This market w

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If USDA NASS reports that Montana’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 is above 2,140,000 head, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is USDA NASS’s Cattle, Including Calves — Inventory estimate for Montana as of January 1, 2027. This includes all cattl"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Montana’s inventory of all cattle and calves for January 1, 2027 be above 2,140,000 head?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 7, 2027): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics