Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations
PM $108.8K
1
19
Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations
PM $108.8K
1
19
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Matt Damon at 93.4%.
Polymarket
- Matt Damon93.4%
- John Malkovich88%
- Andrew Scott86%
- Tom Cruise62%
- Robert Pattinson44.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $108.8K
Reported volume · provider units
19
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The source describes markets on whether listed actors will be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. A market "will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor" [1]. If an actor is not nominated when the 2027 nominees are announced, the market "will immediately resolve to "No"" [1]. The excerpt also says that if "no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET," the market resolves to "No" [1]. Official Academy information is the primary resolution source, although "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T08:06:47.353Z [1]. These are snapshot prices from one provider. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample is partial. It includes 12 of 19 markets in the saved event [1]. The included markets were selected by Yes price, then volume, so the seven omitted markets have no prices shown here and should not be read as lower-priced or as part of a complete field.
Among the included markets, Matt Damon's Yes price is 0.934, John Malkovich's is 0.88, and Andrew Scott's is 0.86. Tom Cruise's is 0.54 and Robert Pattinson's is 0.435 [1]. The listed end dates differ. Most included markets list 2027-01-21, which matches the nomination date the excerpt gives as "scheduled" [1]. Tom Cruise and "Anthony Ippolito" list 2027-03-15T03:59:00.000Z [1]. Because the contracts have different listed close times, their prices cover different windows and should not be compared directly as though they measure the same thing.
What remains uncertain
The excerpt does not explain why any price is where it is, and it provides no trader counts, liquidity measures, or volume figures for these markets. The data covers one provider and one event, so it says nothing about other platforms or other award categories. The record reflects conditions at the observation time shown above, not conditions today, and it does not show whether any nominations have been announced.
References
- Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations . Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
The Academy Awards, more commonly known as the Oscars, are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) and recognize excellence in cinematic achievement as assessed by the Academy's voting membership [3]. This contract concerns the Best Actor category for the 99th Academy Awards, which the event describes as the 99th Academy Awards in 2027 [1]. Each market in this event is a yes or no contract on whether a named actor will be nominated for Best Actor. A market resolves Yes if the listed actor is nominated for that award [1]. If an actor is not officially nominated when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market resolves No immediately [1]. If no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every market in the event resolves No [1]. The contract rules state that nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, 2027, with the ceremony on March 14, 2027 [1]. These are dates written into the contract description. They describe the schedule the rules refer to and do not show that any announcement has taken place. The primary resolution source is official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including its website and the live broadcast of the ceremony. The rules also allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used [1]. The market listings do not all carry the same end date. Some show January 21, 2027, while others show March 15, 2027 at 03:59 UTC, which is the event's listed end time [1]. Users should read each market's rules to see which date and resolution condition applies to it.
Historical Context
The Academy Awards are presented annually by AMPAS, and the event is widely described as the most prestigious award in the film industry [3]. The Academy has revised its category names over time. Its International Feature Film category was created in 1956 under the name Best Foreign Language Film and was renamed Best International Feature Film in April 2019, after the Academy judged the word "Foreign" to be outdated [2]. That category is separate from Best Actor, so this history gives context on the Academy's practices rather than on this contract's rules.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific actor appears on the official Best Actor nominee list for the 99th Academy Awards [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to official nomination announcements and a fixed deadline, the outcome depends on AMPAS's formal process rather than on press speculation alone, though credible reporting may be used when the rules allow it [1]. The Academy's status as the presenting body for the awards is what gives its official information its role in resolution [3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a Yes outcome require the actor to win the award?
No. The contract resolves Yes if the listed actor is nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, not if the actor wins [1].
What happens if nominations are not declared by the deadline?
If no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No [1].
What happens if a named actor is not nominated?
If the actor is not officially nominated when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market resolves No immediately [1].
Where is the outcome confirmed?
The primary source is official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including its website and the live broadcast. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Why do the end dates differ between markets?
Markets in this event list different end dates, with some showing January 21, 2027 and others showing March 15, 2027 at 03:59 UTC [1]. The rules describe the nominee announcement and the March 14, 2027 deadline, so the listed date should be read alongside each market's own terms.
Does the price of a contract show the probability of nomination?
Not on its own. A price is a snapshot from a provider at a specific time. It is not an executable quote or a verified probability.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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